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  • 1
    Keywords: COHORT ; BODY-WEIGHT ; BREAST-CANCER ; OBESITY ; PROJECT ; nutrition ; PARTICIPANTS ; survival analysis ; SUBSEQUENT CHANGES ; EPIC-PANACEA
    Abstract: BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS: We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53 degrees 758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining 〉/= 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS: Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of 〉/= 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 23874419
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  • 2
    Keywords: MODELS ; RISK ; DIETARY ; meat ; CALIBRATION ; CORONARY-HEART-DISEASE ; METAANALYSIS ; CONTAMINANTS ; DANISH ADULTS ; FISHERMEN
    Abstract: Fish is a source of important nutrients and may play a role in preventing heart diseases and other health outcomes. However, studies of overall mortality and cause-specific mortality related to fish consumption are inconclusive. We examined the rate of overall mortality, as well as mortality from ischaemic heart disease and cancer in relation to the intake of total fish, lean fish, and fatty fish in a large prospective cohort including ten European countries. More than 500,000 men and women completed a dietary questionnaire in 1992-1999 and were followed up for mortality until the end of 2010. 32,587 persons were reported dead since enrolment. Hazard ratios and their 99 % confidence interval were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression models. Fish consumption was examined using quintiles based on reported consumption, using moderate fish consumption (third quintile) as reference, and as continuous variables, using increments of 10 g/day. All analyses were adjusted for possible confounders. No association was seen for fish consumption and overall or cause-specific mortality for both the categorical and the continuous analyses, but there seemed to be a U-shaped trend (p 〈 0.000) with fatty fish consumption and total mortality and with total fish consumption and cancer mortality (p = 0.046).
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 25377533
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  • 3
    Abstract: BACKGROUND: Studies of the role of dietary factors in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) development have been limited, and no specific dietary factors have been consistently associated with EOC risk. OBJECTIVE: We used a nutrient-wide association study approach to systematically test the association between dietary factors and invasive EOC risk while accounting for multiple hypothesis testing by using the false discovery rate and evaluated the findings in an independent cohort. DESIGN: We assessed dietary intake amounts of 28 foods/food groups and 29 nutrients estimated by using dietary questionnaires in the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) study (n = 1095 cases). We selected 4 foods/nutrients that were statistically significantly associated with EOC risk when comparing the extreme quartiles of intake in the EPIC study (false discovery rate = 0.43) and evaluated these factors in the NLCS (Netherlands Cohort Study; n = 383 cases). Cox regression models were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs. RESULTS: None of the 4 dietary factors that were associated with EOC risk in the EPIC study (cholesterol, polyunsaturated and saturated fat, and bananas) were statistically significantly associated with EOC risk in the NLCS; however, in meta-analysis of the EPIC study and the NLCS, we observed a higher risk of EOC with a high than with a low intake of saturated fat (quartile 4 compared with quartile 1; overall HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.41). CONCLUSION: In the meta-analysis of both studies, there was a higher risk of EOC with a high than with a low intake of saturated fat.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 26607939
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  • 4
    Keywords: CANCER ; WOMEN ; PROSPECTIVE COHORT ; ALCOHOL-CONSUMPTION ; MASS INDEX ; PHYSICAL-ACTIVITY ; RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED-TRIAL ; ABDOMINAL ADIPOSITY ; HEALTH BEHAVIORS ; MODIFIED MEDITERRANEAN DIET
    Abstract: Background: The evidence that individual dietary and lifestyle factors influence a person's weight and waist circumference is well established; however their combined impact is less well documented. Therefore, we investigated the combined effect of physical activity, nutrition and smoking status on prospective gain in body weight and waist circumference. Methods: We used data of the prospective EPIC-PANACEA study. Between 1992 and 2000, 325,537 participants (94,445 men and 231,092 women, aged between 25-70) were recruited from nine European countries. Participants were categorised into two groups (positive or negative health behaviours) for each of the following being physically active, adherent to a healthy (Mediterranean not including alcohol) diet, and never-smoking for a total score ranging from zero to three. Anthropometric measures were taken at baseline and were mainly self-reported after a medium follow-up time of 5 years. Results: Mixed-effects linear regression models adjusted for age, educational level, alcohol consumption, baseline body mass index and follow-up time showed that men and women who reported to be physically active, never-smoking and adherent to the Mediterranean diet gained over a 5-year period 537 (95% CI -706, -368) and 200 (-478, -87) gram less weight and 0.95 (-1.27, -0.639) and 0.99 (-1.29, -0.69) cm less waist circumference, respectively, compared to participants with zero healthy behaviours. Conclusion: The combination of positive health behaviours was associated with significantly lower weight and waist circumference gain.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 23226361
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  • 5
    Keywords: MORTALITY ; POPULATION ; ASSOCIATION ; WOMEN ; CONSUMPTION ; LEISURE-TIME ; CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE ; PHYSICAL-ACTIVITY ; ALL-CAUSE ; DIET QUALITY
    Abstract: BACKGROUND: In 2007, the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) and the American Institute for Cancer Research (AICR) issued recommendations on diet, physical activity, and weight management for cancer prevention on the basis of the most comprehensive collection of available evidence. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether concordance with WCRF/AICR recommendations is related to risk of death. DESIGN: The current study included 378,864 participants from 9 European countries enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. At recruitment (1992-1998), dietary, anthropometric, and lifestyle information was collected. A WCRF/AICR score, which incorporated 6 of the WCRF/AICR recommendations for men [regarding body fatness, physical activity, foods and drinks that promote weight gain, plant foods, animal foods, and alcoholic drinks (score range: 0-6)] and 7 WCRF/AICR recommendations for women [plus breastfeeding (score range: 0-7)], was constructed. Higher scores indicated greater concordance with WCRF/AICR recommendations. Associations between the WCRF/AICR score and risks of total and cause-specific death were estimated by using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: After a median follow-up time of 12.8 y, 23,828 deaths were identified. Participants within the highest category of the WCRF/AICR score (5-6 points in men; 6-7 points in women) had a 34% lower hazard of death (95% CI: 0.59, 0.75) compared with participants within the lowest category of the WCRF/AICR score (0-2 points in men; 0-3 points in women). Significant inverse associations were observed in all countries. The WCRF/AICR score was also significantly associated with a lower hazard of dying from cancer, circulatory disease, and respiratory disease. CONCLUSION: Results of this study suggest that following WCRF/AICR recommendations could significantly increase longevity.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 23553166
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  • 6
    Keywords: FOLLOW-UP ; TOOL ; COHORT ; prevention ; VALIDITY ; MELLITUS ; METAANALYSIS ; EXTERNAL VALIDATION ; IDENTIFYING INDIVIDUALS ; LIFE-STYLE INTERVENTIONS
    Abstract: BACKGROUND: The comparative performance of existing models for prediction of type 2 diabetes across populations has not been investigated. We validated existing non-laboratory-based models and assessed variability in predictive performance in European populations. METHODS: We selected non-invasive prediction models for incident diabetes developed in populations of European ancestry and validated them using data from the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort sample (27,779 individuals from eight European countries, of whom 12,403 had incident diabetes). We assessed model discrimination and calibration for the first 10 years of follow-up. The models were first adjusted to the country-specific diabetes incidence. We did the main analyses for each country and for subgroups defined by sex, age (〈60 years vs 〉/=60 years), BMI (〈25 kg/m(2)vs 〉/=25 kg/m(2)), and waist circumference (men 〈102 cm vs 〉/=102 cm; women 〈88 cm vs 〉/=88 cm). FINDINGS: We validated 12 prediction models. Discrimination was acceptable to good: C statistics ranged from 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80) to 0.81 (0.77-0.84) overall, from 0.73 (0.70-0.76) to 0.79 (0.74-0.83) in men, and from 0.78 (0.74-0.82) to 0.81 (0.80-0.82) in women. We noted significant heterogeneity in discrimination (pheterogeneity〈0.0001) in all but one model. Calibration was good for most models, and consistent across countries (pheterogeneity〉0.05) except for three models. However, two models overestimated risk, DPoRT by 34% (95% CI 29-39%) and Cambridge by 40% (28-52%). Discrimination was always better in individuals younger than 60 years or with a low waist circumference than in those aged at least 60 years or with a large waist circumference. Patterns were inconsistent for BMI. All models overestimated risks for individuals with a BMI of 〈25 kg/m(2). Calibration patterns were inconsistent for age and waist-circumference subgroups. INTERPRETATION: Existing diabetes prediction models can be used to identify individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population. However, the performance of each model varies with country, age, sex, and adiposity. FUNDING: The European Union.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 24622666
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  • 7
    Keywords: CANCER ; MODEL ; DISEASE ; MORTALITY ; POPULATION ; RISK ; HEALTH ; PROJECT ; nutrition ; HEART-DISEASE ; DIETARY-INTAKE MEASUREMENTS ; fruits and vegetables ; EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ; CANCER-MORTALITY ; cardiovascular disease ; CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE MORTALITY ; ALL-CAUSE ; HIROSHIMA/NAGASAKI LIFE-SPAN ; Respiratory disease
    Abstract: Consumption of fruits and vegetables is associated with a lower overall mortality. The aim of this study was to identify causes of death through which this association is established. More than 450,000 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study were included, of which 25,682 were reported deceased after 13 years of follow-up. Information on lifestyle, diet and vital status was collected through questionnaires and population registries. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI) for death from specific causes were calculated from Cox regression models, adjusted for potential confounders. Participants reporting consumption of more than 569 g/day of fruits and vegetables had lower risks of death from diseases of the circulatory (HR for upper fourth 0.85, 95 % CI 0.77-0.93), respiratory (HR for upper fourth 0.73, 95 % CI 0.59-0.91) and digestive system (HR for upper fourth 0.60, 95 % CI 0.46-0.79) when compared with participants consuming less than 249 g/day. In contrast, a positive association with death from diseases of the nervous system was observed. Inverse associations were generally observed for vegetable, but not for fruit consumption. Associations were more pronounced for raw vegetable consumption, when compared with cooked vegetable consumption. Raw vegetable consumption was additionally inversely associated with death from neoplasms and mental and behavioral disorders. The lower risk of death associated with a higher consumption of fruits and vegetables may be derived from inverse associations with diseases of the circulatory, respiratory and digestive system, and may depend on the preparation of vegetables and lifestyle factors.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 25154553
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  • 8
    Keywords: CANCER ; DISEASE ; RISK-FACTORS ; HUMANS ; DIETARY ; PROJECT ; MELLITUS ; biomarker ; DAIRY PRODUCT INTAKE ; DE-NOVO LIPOGENESIS
    Abstract: Background Conflicting evidence exists regarding the association between saturated fatty acids (SFAs) and type 2 diabetes. In this longitudinal case-cohort study, we aimed to investigate the prospective associations between objectively measured individual plasma phospholipid SFAs and incident type 2 diabetes in EPIC-InterAct participants. Methods The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study includes 12 403 people with incident type 2 diabetes and a representative subcohort of 16 154 individuals who were selected from a cohort of 340 234 European participants with 3 . 99 million person-years of follow-up (the EPIC study). Incident type 2 diabetes was ascertained until Dec 31, 2007, by a review of several sources of evidence. Gas chromatography was used to measure the distribution of fatty acids in plasma phospholipids (mol%); samples from people with type 2 diabetes and subcohort participants were processed in a random order by centre, and laboratory staff were masked to participant characteristics. We estimated country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for associations per SD of each SFA with incident type 2 diabetes using Prentice-weighted Cox regression, which is weighted for case-cohort sampling, and pooled our findings using random-effects meta-analysis. Findings SFAs accounted for 46% of total plasma phospholipid fatty acids. In adjusted analyses, different individual SFAs were associated with incident type 2 diabetes in opposing directions. Even-chain SFAs that were measured (14: 0 [myristic acid], 16: 0 [palmitic acid], and 18: 0 [stearic acid]) were positively associated with incident type 2 diabetes (HR [95% CI] per SD difference: myristic acid 1.15 [95% CI 1.09-1.22], palmitic acid 1.26 [1.15-1.37], and stearic acid 1.06 [1.00-1.13]). By contrast, measured odd-chain SFAs (15: 0 [pentadecanoic acid] and 17: 0 [heptadecanoic acid]) were inversely associated with incident type 2 diabetes (HR [95% CI] per 1 SD difference: 0.79 [0.73-0.85] for pentadecanoic acid and 0.67 [0.63-0.71] for heptadecanoic acid), as were measured longer-chain SFAs (20: 0 [arachidic acid], 22:0 [behenic acid], 23:0 [tricosanoic acid], and 24:0 [lignoceric acid]), with HRs ranging from 0.72 to 0.81 (95% CIs ranging between 0.61 and 0.92). Our findings were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Interpretation Different individual plasma phospholipid SFAs were associated with incident type 2 diabetes in opposite directions, which suggests that SFAs are not homogeneous in their effects. Our findings emphasise the importance of the recognition of subtypes of these fatty acids. An improved understanding of differences in sources of individual SFAs from dietary intake versus endogenous metabolism is needed.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 25107467
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  • 9
    Keywords: RISK-FACTORS ; prevention ; COLON-CANCER ; MYOCARDIAL-INFARCTION ; nutrition ; PHYSICAL-ACTIVITY ; METAANALYSIS ; RECTAL CANCERS ; PROPORTION ; Attributable risk
    Abstract: Background: Excess body weight, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and certain dietary factors are individually related to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk; however, little is known about their joint effects. The aim of this study was to develop a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) composed of five potentially modifiable lifestyle factors healthy weight, physical activity, non-smoking, limited alcohol consumption and a healthy diet, and to explore the association of this index with CRC incidence using data collected within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Methods: In the EPIC cohort, a total of 347,237 men and women, 25- to 70-years old, provided dietary and lifestyle information at study baseline (1992 to 2000). Over a median follow-up time of 12 years, 3,759 incident CRC cases were identified. The association between a HLI and CRC risk was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and population attributable risks (PARs) have been calculated. Results: After accounting for study centre, age, sex and education, compared with 0 or 1 healthy lifestyle factors, the hazard ratio (HR) for CRC was 0.87 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.44 to 0.77) for two factors, 0.79 (95% CI: 0.70 to 0.89) for three factors, 0.66 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.75) for four factors and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.54 to 0.74) for five factors; P-trend 〈0.0001. The associations were present for both colon and rectal cancers, HRs, 0.61 (95% CI: 0.50 to 0.74; P for trend 〈0.0001) for colon cancer and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.88; P-trend 〈0.0001) for rectal cancer, respectively (P-difference by cancer sub-site = 0.10). Overall, 16% of the new CRC cases (22% in men and 11% in women) were attributable to not adhering to a combination of all five healthy lifestyle behaviours included in the index. Conclusions: Combined lifestyle factors are associated with a lower incidence of CRC in European populations characterized by western lifestyles. Prevention strategies considering complex targeting of multiple lifestyle factors may provide practical means for improved CRC prevention.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 25319089
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  • 10
    Keywords: DIAGNOSIS ; RISK ; BREAST-CANCER ; COLON-CANCER ; nutrition ; LIFE-STYLE FACTORS ; BODY-MASS INDEX ; REPRODUCTIVE HISTORY ; RECREATIONAL PHYSICAL-ACTIVITY ; RESEARCH FUND/AMERICAN INSTITUTE
    Abstract: BACKGROUND: Cancer survivors are advised to follow lifestyle recommendations on diet, physical activity, and body fatness proposed by the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute of Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) for cancer prevention. Previous studies have demonstrated that higher concordance with these recommendations measured using an index score (the WCRF/AICR score) was associated with lower cancer incidence and mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between pre-diagnostic concordance with WCRF/AICR recommendations and mortality in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. METHODS: The association between the WCRF/AICR score (score range 0-6 in men and 0-7 in women; higher scores indicate greater concordance) assessed on average 6.4 years before diagnosis and CRC-specific (n = 872) and overall mortality (n = 1,113) was prospectively examined among 3,292 participants diagnosed with CRC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (mean follow-up time after diagnosis 4.2 years). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality. RESULTS: The HRs (95% CIs) for CRC-specific mortality among participants in the second (score range in men/women: 2.25-2.75/3.25-3.75), third (3-3.75/4-4.75), and fourth (4-6/5-7) categories of the score were 0.87 (0.72-1.06), 0.74 (0.61-0.90), and 0.70 (0.56-0.89), respectively (P for trend 〈0.0001), compared to participants with the lowest concordance with the recommendations (category 1 of the score: 0-2/0-3). Similar HRs for overall mortality were observed (P for trend 0.004). Meeting the recommendations on body fatness and plant food consumption were associated with improved survival among CRC cases in mutually adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS: Greater concordance with the WCRF/AICR recommendations on diet, physical activity, and body fatness prior to CRC diagnosis is associated with improved survival among CRC patients.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 25948112
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