Keywords:
CANCER
;
Germany
;
human
;
MODEL
;
INFORMATION
;
screening
;
TOOL
;
COHORT
;
cohort study
;
HISTORY
;
POPULATION
;
RISK
;
METABOLISM
;
FAMILY
;
RISK-FACTORS
;
score
;
lifestyle
;
DESIGN
;
AGE
;
WOMEN
;
MEN
;
risk factors
;
smoking
;
POPULATIONS
;
DIETARY
;
HYPERTENSION
;
meat
;
nutrition
;
TYPE-2
;
EPIC-GERMANY
;
BETA-CELL FUNCTION
;
insulin
;
MELLITUS
;
REGRESSION
;
FAMILIES
;
PHYSICAL-ACTIVITY
;
RELATIVE VALIDITY
;
development
;
methods
;
metabolic syndrome
;
prospective
;
correlation
;
MEAT INTAKE
;
RISK-FACTOR
;
type 2 diabetes
;
PREDICT
;
type-2-diabetes
;
FASTING GLUCOSE
;
IMPAIRED GLUCOSE-TOLERANCE
;
INSULIN SECRETORY DYSFUNCTION
;
WHOLE-GRAIN INTAKE
Abstract:
OBJECTIVE - We aimed to develop a precise risk score for the screening of large populations for individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes based on noninvasive measurements of major risk factors in German study populations. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - A prospective cohort study (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition [EPIC]-Potsdam study) of 9,729 men and 15,438 women aged 35-65 years was used to derive a risk score predicting incident type 2 diabetes. Multivariate Cox regression model coefficients were used to weigh each variable in the. calculation of the score. Data from the EPIC-Heidelberg, the Tubingen Family Study for Type 2 Diabetes (T F), and the Metabolic Syndrome Berlin Potsdam (MeSyBePo) study were used to validate this score. RESULTS - information on age, waist circumference, height, history of hypertension, physical activity, smoking, and consumption of red meat, whole-grain bread, coffee, and alcohol formed the German Diabetes Risk Score (mean 446 points [range 118-983]). The probability of developing diabetes within 5 years in the EPIC-Potsdam study increased from 0.3% for 300 to 23.2% for 750 score points. The area under the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.84 in the EPIC-Potsdam and 0.82 in the EPIC-Heidelberg studies. Correlation coefficients between the German Diabetes Risk Score and insulin sensitivity in nondiabetic individuals were -0.56 in the TUF and -0.45 in the MeSyBePo studies. ROC values for undiagnosed diabetes were 0.83 in the TUF and 0.75 in the MeSyBePo studies. CONCLUSIONS - The German Diabetes Risk Score (available at www.dife.de) is an accurate tool to identify individuals at high risk for or with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes
Type of Publication:
Journal article published
Deep Link:
http://www.dkfz.de/cgi-bin/sel?http://www.dkfz.de/PublicationManager/Show/ShowJournal.aspx%3fpublishedId=5140
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