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  • 1
    Keywords: CANCER ; Germany ; MODEL ; MODELS ; neoplasms ; INFORMATION ; screening ; COHORT ; POPULATION ; RISK ; DESIGN ; AGE ; WOMEN ; colorectal cancer ; MEN ; COLORECTAL-CANCER ; PREVALENCE ; REGRESSION ; PROGRAM ; aging ; colonoscopy ; METAANALYSIS ; BIRTH ; CANCER INCIDENCE ; colorectal neoplasms ; PARTICIPATION ; POLYPS ; COHORTS ; STRATIFICATION
    Abstract: BACKGROUND: Prevalence of advanced colorectal neoplasms increases with age and is higher among men than women. Cross-sectional analyses estimated that men reach an equivalent prevalence at a much younger age than women. However, cross-sectional estimates may be confounded by birth cohort effects. OBJECTIVE: To estimate age and cohort effects in advanced colorectal neoplasms and to adjust risk-advancement periods for men compared with women for birth cohort effects. DESIGN: Age-cohort analyses. SETTING: German screening colonoscopy program, 2003 to 2007. PARTICIPANTS: 2 185 153 participants aged 55 to 75 years. MEASUREMENTS: Sex- and age-specific prevalence of colorectal cancer (CRC) and advanced neoplasms (CRC or advanced adenoma) were plotted with and without stratification by birth cohort. Risk-advancement periods with 95% CI for men compared with women were estimated from log-binomial regression models with and without cross-sectional analysis adjustment for birth cohort effects. RESULTS: Overall, 17 196 participants (0.8%) had CRC and 152 429 (7.0%) had any advanced neoplasm. Age-specific prevalence was higher in men than in women and in later birth cohorts. The apparent modest increase in prevalence by age in cross-sectional analysis was much steeper after birth cohort effects were controlled for. In cross-sectional analysis, risk-advancement periods (95% CI) for men compared with women were 8.4 years (CI, 7.7 to 9.0 years) and 16.1 years (CI, 15.8 to 16.5 years) for CRC and any advanced neoplasm, respectively, and 3.4 years (CI, 2.6 to 4.3 years) and 6.9 years (CI, 6.4 to 7.4 years) after controlling for birth cohort effects. LIMITATION: Information on covariates that could explain cohort effects was lacking. CONCLUSION: In this population, strong cohort effects reduced age gradients in advanced colorectal neoplasms and inflated risk-advancement periods for men compared with women, but major risk advancement persisted, even after birth cohort effects were controlled for. Primary Funding Source: None.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 20513827
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  • 2
    Keywords: CANCER ; Germany ; screening ; TOOL ; POPULATION ; RISK ; IMPACT ; ADENOMAS ; prevention ; AGE ; WOMEN ; colorectal cancer ; MEN ; COLORECTAL-CANCER ; CERVICAL-CANCER ; RATES ; DATABASE ; EUROPE ; colonoscopy ; RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED-TRIAL ; colorectal ; POLYPECTOMY ; CRC ; REMOVAL
    Abstract: In late 2002, colonoscopy was introduced as a primary screening tool for colorectal cancer (CRC) in Germany We aimed to estimate the expected reduction in case numbers and incidence of CRC between 2003 and 2010 by detection and removal of advanced adenomas. Data from 1,875,708 women and men included in the national screening colonoscopy database were combined with estimates of transition rates of advanced adenomas and with national population projections. Despite relatively low screening participation, incident CRC cases are expected to be reduced by more than 15,000 between 2003 and 2010. The impact is expected to be largest in age groups 55-59, 60-64 and 65-69 in whom total case numbers in 2010 are expected to be reduced by 13%, 19% and 14% among women, and by 11%, 15% and 12%, respectively, among men. our results forecast a major rapid reduction of the CRC burden in Germany by screening colonoscopy. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 19289271
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  • 3
    Keywords: CANCER ; Germany ; screening ; incidence ; POPULATION ; RISK ; PATIENT ; colon ; ADENOMAS ; PROGRESSION ; DESIGN ; AGE ; WOMEN ; colorectal cancer ; MEN ; COLORECTAL-CANCER ; COST-EFFECTIVENESS ; RATES ; LINE ; EVOLUTION ; MALIGNANT TRANSFORMATION ; NATIONWIDE ; CARRIERS ; INDIVIDUALS ; SERIES ; PREVALENCE ; REGISTRY ; RE ; INCREASE ; TRANSITION ; colonoscopy ; CANCER INCIDENCE ; GUT ; REGISTRIES ; colorectal ; - ; GRADIENT ; LARGE-INTESTINE ; POLYPS ; SCREENING COLONOSCOPY ; adenoma ; YOUNGER
    Abstract: Objectives: To derive age and sex specific estimates of transition rates from advanced adenomas to colorectal cancer by combining data of a nationwide screening colonoscopy registry and national data on colorectal cancer ( CRC) incidence. Design: Registry based study. Setting: National screening colonoscopy programme in Germany. Patients: Participants of screening colonoscopy in 2003 and 2004 ( n = 840 149). Main outcome measures: Advanced adenoma prevalence, colorectal cancer incidence, annual and 10 year cumulative risk of developing CRC among carriers of advanced adenomas according to sex and age ( range 55 - 80+ years). Results: The age gradient is much stronger for CRC incidence than for advanced adenoma prevalence. As a result, projected annual transition rates from advanced adenomas to CRC strongly increase with age ( from 2.6% in age group 55 - 59 years to 5.6% in age group 〉= 80 years among women, and from 2.6% in age group 55 - 59 years to 5.1% in age group 〉= 80 years among men). Projections of 10 year cumulative risk increase from 25.4% at age 55 years to 42.9% at age 80 years in women, and from 25.2% at age 55 years to 39.7% at age 80 years in men. Conclusions: Advanced adenoma transition rates are similar in both sexes, but there is a strong age gradient for both sexes. Our estimates of transition rates in older age groups are in line with previous estimates derived from small case series in the pre-colonoscopy era independent of age. However, our projections for younger age groups are considerably lower. These findings may have important implications for the design of CRC screening programmes
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 17591622
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