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  • METAANALYSIS  (63)
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  • 1
    Keywords: FOLLOW-UP ; TOOL ; COHORT ; prevention ; VALIDITY ; MELLITUS ; METAANALYSIS ; EXTERNAL VALIDATION ; IDENTIFYING INDIVIDUALS ; LIFE-STYLE INTERVENTIONS
    Abstract: BACKGROUND: The comparative performance of existing models for prediction of type 2 diabetes across populations has not been investigated. We validated existing non-laboratory-based models and assessed variability in predictive performance in European populations. METHODS: We selected non-invasive prediction models for incident diabetes developed in populations of European ancestry and validated them using data from the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort sample (27,779 individuals from eight European countries, of whom 12,403 had incident diabetes). We assessed model discrimination and calibration for the first 10 years of follow-up. The models were first adjusted to the country-specific diabetes incidence. We did the main analyses for each country and for subgroups defined by sex, age (〈60 years vs 〉/=60 years), BMI (〈25 kg/m(2)vs 〉/=25 kg/m(2)), and waist circumference (men 〈102 cm vs 〉/=102 cm; women 〈88 cm vs 〉/=88 cm). FINDINGS: We validated 12 prediction models. Discrimination was acceptable to good: C statistics ranged from 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80) to 0.81 (0.77-0.84) overall, from 0.73 (0.70-0.76) to 0.79 (0.74-0.83) in men, and from 0.78 (0.74-0.82) to 0.81 (0.80-0.82) in women. We noted significant heterogeneity in discrimination (pheterogeneity〈0.0001) in all but one model. Calibration was good for most models, and consistent across countries (pheterogeneity〉0.05) except for three models. However, two models overestimated risk, DPoRT by 34% (95% CI 29-39%) and Cambridge by 40% (28-52%). Discrimination was always better in individuals younger than 60 years or with a low waist circumference than in those aged at least 60 years or with a large waist circumference. Patterns were inconsistent for BMI. All models overestimated risks for individuals with a BMI of 〈25 kg/m(2). Calibration patterns were inconsistent for age and waist-circumference subgroups. INTERPRETATION: Existing diabetes prediction models can be used to identify individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population. However, the performance of each model varies with country, age, sex, and adiposity. FUNDING: The European Union.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 24622666
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  • 2
    Keywords: ENERGIES ; CANCER ; Germany ; human ; MODEL ; MODELS ; FOLLOW-UP ; COHORT ; EPIDEMIOLOGY ; RISK ; RISK-FACTORS ; ASSOCIATION ; BREAST ; breast cancer ; BREAST-CANCER ; TRIAL ; hormone ; HEALTH ; ENERGY ; AGE ; WOMEN ; HORMONE REPLACEMENT THERAPY ; OBESITY ; risk factors ; COUNTRIES ; cancer risk ; RISK FACTOR ; EPIC ; EPIC study ; European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition ; nutrition ; POSTMENOPAUSAL WOMEN ; MASS INDEX ; PH ; WEIGHT ; body weight ; fat distribution ; HEIGHT ; ADIPOSITY ; breast neoplasm ; HORMONE-REPLACEMENT THERAPY ; METAANALYSIS
    Abstract: The evidence for anthropometric factors influencing breast cancer risk is accumulating, but uncertainties remain concerning the role of fat distribution and potential effect modifiers. We used data from 73,542 premenopausal and 103,344 postmenopausal women from 9 European countries, taking part in the EPIC study. RRs from Cox regression models were calculated, using measured height, weight, BMI and waist and hip circumferences; categorized by cohort wide quintiles; and expressed as continuous variables, adjusted for study center, age and other risk factors. During 4.7 years of follow-up, 1,879 incident invasive breast cancers were identified. In postmenopausal women, current HRT modified the body size-breast cancer association. Among nonusers, weight, BMI and hip circumference were positively associated with breast cancer risk (all P-trend less than or equal to 0.002); obese women (BMI 〉 30) had a 31% excess risk compared to women with BMI 〈 25. Among HRT users, body measures were inversely but nonsignificantly associated with breast cancer. Excess breast cancer risk with HRT was particularly evident among lean women. Pooled RRs per height increment of 5 cm were 1.05 (95% CI 1.00-1.16) in premenopausal and 1.10 (95% CI 1.05-1.16) in postmenopausal women. Among premenopausal women, hip circumference was the only other measure significantly related to breast cancer (P-trend = 0.03), after accounting for BMI. In postmenopausal women not taking exogenous hormones, general obesity is a significant predictor of breast cancer, while abdominal fat assessed as waist-hip ratio or waist circumference was not related to excess risk when adjusted for BMI. Among premenopausal women, weight and BMI showed nonsignificant inverse associations with breast cancer. (C) 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 15252848
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  • 3
    Keywords: CANCER ; carcinoma ; FOLLOW-UP ; INFORMATION ; COHORT ; RISK ; INFECTION ; ASSOCIATION ; PATTERNS ; HEALTH ; MEN ; COUNTRIES ; DIET ; NETHERLANDS ; STOMACH ; adenocarcinoma ; EPIC ; GASTRIC-CANCER ; HELICOBACTER-PYLORI ; nutrition ; physical activity ; ONCOLOGY ; POPULATION-BASED COHORT ; SCALE ; PHYSICAL-ACTIVITY ; METAANALYSIS ; SUBTYPES ; prospective ; CANCERS ; VARIABLES ; Helicobacter pylori ; stomach cancer ; BODY-MASS ; tumours ; gastric adenocarcinoma ; Type ; EURGAST ; REGISTER ; Oesophagus cancer
    Abstract: To analyse the association between types of physical activity (occupational, recreational and household, vigorous and overall) and risk of primary oesophageal (OAC) or gastric adenocarcinoma (GAC). From nine European countries, 420,449 participants were recruited between 1991 and 2000 and followed-up for a mean of 8.8 years to register incident GAC and OAC. Information on physical activity (PA), diet, lifestyle and health-related variables was obtained at baseline. Helicobacter pylori infection status was considered in a subset of 1,211 participants. Analyses were repeated by tumour site (cardia/non-cardia) and histological type (intestinal/diffuse). During the follow-up, 410 GAC and 80 OAC occurred. A lower risk of overall and non-cardia GAC was found for increasing levels of a PA index which combined occupational PA with weekly time spent in sports and cycling. The hazard ratio (HR) of GAC was 0.69, 95% CI: 0.50-0.94, for the comparison between active and inactive participants according to the PA index (HR = 0.44, 95% CI:0.26-0.74, for non-cardia GAC). No effect was found for cardia tumours or histological subtypes of GAC. PA of any kind was not associated with OAC. Overall and distal (non-cardia) gastric tumours were inversely associated with time spent on cycling and sports and a total PA index. No association was found for any type of PA and risk of cardia cancers of the stomach
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 20052611
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  • 4
    Keywords: SURVIVAL ; COHORT ; EPIDEMIOLOGY ; RISK ; RISK-FACTORS ; HEALTH ; POPULATIONS ; INEQUALITIES ; DETERMINANTS ; PHYSICAL-ACTIVITY ; METAANALYSIS ; socioeconomic status ; SOCIOECONOMIC-STATUS ; Educational level ; Pancreatic cancer incidence
    Abstract: Introduction: Until now, studies examining the relationship between socioeconomic status and pancreatic cancer incidence have been inconclusive. Aim: To prospectively investigate to what extent pancreatic cancer incidence varies according to educational level within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Methods: In the EPIC study, socioeconomic status at baseline was measured using the highest level of education attained. Hazard ratios by educational level and a summary index, the relative indices of inequality (Rh), were estimated using Cox regression models stratified by age, gender, and center and adjusted for known risk factors. In addition, we conducted separate analyses by age, gender and geographical region. Results: Within the source population of 407, 944 individuals at baseline, 490 first incident primary pancreatic adenocarcinoma cases were identified in 9 European countries. The crude difference in risk of pancreatic cancer according to level of education was small and not statistically significant (RII = 1.14, 95% CI 0.80-1.62). Adjustment for known risk factors reduced the inequality estimates to only a small extent. In addition, no statistically significant associations were observed for age groups (adjusted RII 〈= (60) (years) = 0.85, 95% CI 0.44-1.64, adjusted RII〉 60 years = 1.18, 95% CI 0.73-1.90), gender (adjusted RIImale = 1.20, 95% CI 0.68-2.10, adjusted RIIfemale = 0.96, 95% CI 0.56-1.62) or geographical region (adjusted RIINorthern Europe = 1.14, 95% CI 0.81-1.61, adjusted RIIMiddle (Europe) = 1.72, 95% CI 0.93-3.19, adjusted RIISouthern Europe = 0.75, 95% CI 0.32-1.80). Conclusion: Despite large educational inequalities in many risk factors within the EPIC study, we found no evidence for an association between educational level and the risk of developing pancreatic cancer in this European cohort.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 20829145
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  • 5
    Keywords: RISK ; RISK-FACTORS ; colorectal cancer ; COLORECTAL-CANCER ; CONSUMPTION ; nutrition ; NECK-CANCER ; EPIC PROJECT ; METAANALYSIS ; pooled analysis ; EPIDEMIOLOGY CONSORTIUM ; GLOBAL BURDEN ; INTERNATIONAL HEAD
    Abstract: Objective To compute the burden of cancer attributable to current and former alcohol consumption in eight European countries based on direct relative risk estimates from a cohort study. Design Combination of prospective cohort study with representative population based data on alcohol exposure. Setting Eight countries (France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Greece, Germany, Denmark) participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Participants 109 118 men and 254 870 women, mainly aged 37-70. Main outcome measures Hazard rate ratios expressing the relative risk of cancer incidence for former and current alcohol consumption among EPIC participants. Hazard rate ratios combined with representative information on alcohol consumption to calculate alcohol attributable fractions of causally related cancers by country and sex. Partial alcohol attributable fractions for consumption higher than the recommended upper limit (two drinks a day for men with about 24 g alcohol, one for women with about 12 g alcohol) and the estimated total annual number of cases of alcohol attributable cancer. Results If we assume causality, among men and women, 10% (95% confidence interval 7 to 13%) and 3% (1 to 5%) of the incidence of total cancer was attributable to former and current alcohol consumption in the selected European countries. For selected cancers the figures were 44% (31 to 56%) and 25% (5 to 46%) for upper aerodigestive tract, 33% (11 to 54%) and 18% (-3 to 38%) for liver, 17% (10 to 25%) and 4% (-1 to 10%) for colorectal cancer for men and women, respectively, and 5.0% (2 to 8%) for female breast cancer. A substantial part of the alcohol attributable fraction in 2008 was associated with alcohol consumption higher than the recommended upper limit: 33 037 of 178 578 alcohol related cancer cases in men and 17 470 of 397 043 alcohol related cases in women. Conclusions In western Europe, an important proportion of cases of cancer can be attributable to alcohol consumption, especially consumption higher than the recommended upper limits. These data support current political efforts to reduce or to abstain from alcohol consumption to reduce the incidence of cancer
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 21474525
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  • 6
    Keywords: EXPOSURE ; RISK ; BIOMARKERS ; CIGARETTE-SMOKING ; smoking ; EPIC ; nutrition ; pancreatic cancer ; METAANALYSIS ; ENVIRONMENTAL TOBACCO-SMOKE ; COTININE
    Abstract: Smoking is an established risk factor for pancreatic cancer, previously investigated by the means of questionnaires. Using cotinine as a biomarker for tobacco exposure allows more accurate quantitative analyses to be performed. This study on pancreatic cancer, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC cohort), included 146 cases and 146 matched controls. Using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, plasma cotinine levels were analyzed on average 8.0 years before cancer onset (5-95% range: 2.8-12.0 years). The relation between plasma cotinine levels and pancreatic cancer was analyzed with conditional logistic regression for different levels of cotinine in a population of never and current smokers. This was also done for the self-reported number of smoked cigarettes per day at baseline. Every increase of 350 nmol/L of plasma cotinine was found to significantly elevate risk of pancreatic cancer [odds ratio (OR): 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.60]. People with a cotinine level over 1187.8 nmol/L, a level comparable to smoking 17 cigarettes per day, have an elevated risk of pancreatic cancer, compared to people with cotinine levels below 55 nmol/L (OR: 3.66, 95% CI: 1.44-9.26). The results for self-reported smoking at baseline also show an increased risk of pancreatic cancer from cigarette smoking based on questionnaire information. People who smoke more than 30 cigarettes per day showed the highest risk compared to never smokers (OR: 4.15, 95% CI: 1.02-16.42). This study is the first to show that plasma cotinine levels are strongly related to pancreatic cancer.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 21953524
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  • 7
    Keywords: CANCER ; RISK ; PLASMA ; OBESITY ; GREEN TEA ; COFFEE ; METAANALYSIS ; milk ; BLACK TEA ; OOLONG TEA
    Abstract: BACKGROUND: In previous meta-analyses, tea consumption has been associated with lower incidence of type 2 diabetes. It is unclear, however, if tea is associated inversely over the entire range of intake. Therefore, we investigated the association between tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes in a European population. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centers in 8 European countries and consists of a total of 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,835 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. Country-specific Hazard Ratios (HR) for incidence of type 2 diabetes were obtained after adjustment for lifestyle and dietary factors using a Cox regression adapted for a case-cohort design. Subsequently, country-specific HR were combined using a random effects meta-analysis. Tea consumption was studied as categorical variable (0, 〉0-〈1, 1-〈4, 〉/=4 cups/day). The dose-response of the association was further explored by restricted cubic spline regression. Country specific medians of tea consumption ranged from 0 cups/day in Spain to 4 cups/day in United Kingdom. Tea consumption was associated inversely with incidence of type 2 diabetes; the HR was 0.84 [95%CI 0.71, 1.00] when participants who drank 〉/=4 cups of tea per day were compared with non-drinkers (p(linear trend) = 0.04). Incidence of type 2 diabetes already tended to be lower with tea consumption of 1-〈4 cups/day (HR = 0.93 [95%CI 0.81, 1.05]). Spline regression did not suggest a non-linear association (p(non-linearity) = 0.20). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A linear inverse association was observed between tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes. People who drink at least 4 cups of tea per day may have a 16% lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes than non-tea drinkers.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 22666334
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  • 8
    Keywords: REPRODUCIBILITY ; PROSPECTIVE COHORT ; nutrition ; BREAST-CANCER RISK ; ENDOMETRIAL ; CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE ; TRANSITION ; BODY-SIZE ; METAANALYSIS ; WOMENS HEALTH
    Abstract: OBJECTIVE-Age at menopause is an important determinant of future health outcomes, but little is known about its relationship with type 2 diabetes. We examined the associations of menopausal age and reproductive life span (menopausal age minus menarcheal age) with diabetes risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-Data were obtained from the InterAct study, a prospective case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. A total of 3,691 postmenopausal type 2 diabetic case subjects and 4,408 subcohort members were included in the analysis, with a median follow-up of 11 years. Prentice weighted Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for age, known risk factors for diabetes, and reproductive factors, and effect modification by BMI, waist circumference, and smoking was studied. RESULTS-Mean (SD) age of the subcohort was 59.2 (5.8) years. After multivariable adjustment, hazard ratios (HRs) of type 2 diabetes were 1.32 (95% CI 1.04-1.69), 1.09 (0.90-1.31), 0.97 (0.86-1.10), and 0.85 (0.70-1.03) for women with menopause at ages 〈40, 40-44, 45-49, and 〉= 55 years, respectively, relative to those with menopause at age 50-54 years. The HR per SD younger age at menopause was 1.08 (1.02-1.14). Similarly, a shorter reproductive life span was associated with a higher diabetes risk (HR per SD lower reproductive life span 1.06 [ 1.01-1.12]). No effect modification by BMI, waist circumference, or smoking was observed (P interaction all 〉 0.05). CONCLUSIONS-Early menopause is associated with a greater risk of type 2 diabetes.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 23230098
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  • 9
    Keywords: SURVIVAL ; POPULATION ; PATTERNS ; HEALTH ; nutrition ; PHYSICAL-ACTIVITY ; METAANALYSIS ; RECTAL CANCERS ; ADHERENCE ; EPIC cohort
    Abstract: The authors investigated the association of adherence to Mediterranean diet with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition study. Adherence to Mediterranean diet was expressed through two 10-unit scales, the Modified Mediterranean diet score (MMDS) and the Centre-Specific MMDS (CSMMDS). Both scales share the same dietary components but differ in the cut-off values that were used for these components in the construction of the scales. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for the associations of these scales with CRC incidence were estimated. After 5,296,617 person-years of follow-up, 4,355 incident CRC cases were identified. A decreased risk of CRC, of 8 and 11 % was estimated when comparing the highest (scores 6-9) with the lowest (scores 0-3) adherence to CSMMDS and MMDS respectively. For MMDS the HR was 0.89 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.80, 0.99). A 2-unit increment in either Mediterranean scale was associated with a borderline statistically significant 3 to 4 % reduction in CRC risk (HR for MMDS: 0.96; 95 % CI: 0.92, 1.00). These associations were somewhat more evident, among women, were mainly manifested for colon cancer risk and their magnitude was not altered when alcohol was excluded from MMDS. These findings suggest that following a Mediterranean diet may have a modest beneficial effect on CRC risk.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 23579425
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  • 10
    Keywords: AGE ; WOMEN ; ESTROGEN-RECEPTOR ; ORAL-CONTRACEPTIVE USE ; ASSOCIATIONS ; HEIGHT ; METAANALYSIS ; REPLACEMENT THERAPY ; menarche
    Abstract: Background: The association of reproductive factors with hormone receptor (HR)-negative breast tumors remains uncertain. Methods: Within the EPIC cohort, Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the relationships of reproductive factors (menarcheal age, time between menarche and first pregnancy, parity, number of children, age at first and last pregnancies, time since last full-term childbirth, breastfeeding, age at menopause, ever having an abortion and use of oral contraceptives [OC]) with risk of ER-PR-(n = 998) and ER+PR+ (n = 3,567) breast tumors. Results: A later first full-term childbirth was associated with increased risk of ER+PR+ tumors but not with risk of ER-PR-tumors (= 35 vs. = 19 years HR: 1.47 [95% CI 1.15-1.88] p(trend) 〈 0.001 for ER+PR+ tumors; = 35 vs. = 19 years HR: 0.93 [95% CI 0.53-1.65] p(trend) = 0.96 for ER-PR-tumors; P-het = 0.03). The risk associations of menarcheal age, and time period between menarche and first full-term childbirth with ER-PR-tumors were in the similar direction with risk of ER+PR+ tumors (p(het) = 0.50), although weaker in magnitude and statistically only borderline significant. Other parity related factors such as ever a full-term birth, number of births, age-and time since last birth were associated only with ER+PR+ malignancies, however no statistical heterogeneity between breast cancer subtypes was observed. Breastfeeding and OC use were generally not associated with breast cancer subtype risk. Conclusion: Our study provides possible evidence that age at menarche, and time between menarche and first full-term childbirth may be associated with the etiology of both HR-negative and HR-positive malignancies, although the associations with HR-negative breast cancer were only borderline significant.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 24321460
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