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  • 1
    Keywords: CANCER ; Germany ; MODEL ; MODELS ; neoplasms ; INFORMATION ; screening ; COHORT ; POPULATION ; RISK ; DESIGN ; AGE ; WOMEN ; colorectal cancer ; MEN ; COLORECTAL-CANCER ; PREVALENCE ; REGRESSION ; PROGRAM ; aging ; colonoscopy ; METAANALYSIS ; BIRTH ; CANCER INCIDENCE ; colorectal neoplasms ; PARTICIPATION ; POLYPS ; COHORTS ; STRATIFICATION
    Abstract: BACKGROUND: Prevalence of advanced colorectal neoplasms increases with age and is higher among men than women. Cross-sectional analyses estimated that men reach an equivalent prevalence at a much younger age than women. However, cross-sectional estimates may be confounded by birth cohort effects. OBJECTIVE: To estimate age and cohort effects in advanced colorectal neoplasms and to adjust risk-advancement periods for men compared with women for birth cohort effects. DESIGN: Age-cohort analyses. SETTING: German screening colonoscopy program, 2003 to 2007. PARTICIPANTS: 2 185 153 participants aged 55 to 75 years. MEASUREMENTS: Sex- and age-specific prevalence of colorectal cancer (CRC) and advanced neoplasms (CRC or advanced adenoma) were plotted with and without stratification by birth cohort. Risk-advancement periods with 95% CI for men compared with women were estimated from log-binomial regression models with and without cross-sectional analysis adjustment for birth cohort effects. RESULTS: Overall, 17 196 participants (0.8%) had CRC and 152 429 (7.0%) had any advanced neoplasm. Age-specific prevalence was higher in men than in women and in later birth cohorts. The apparent modest increase in prevalence by age in cross-sectional analysis was much steeper after birth cohort effects were controlled for. In cross-sectional analysis, risk-advancement periods (95% CI) for men compared with women were 8.4 years (CI, 7.7 to 9.0 years) and 16.1 years (CI, 15.8 to 16.5 years) for CRC and any advanced neoplasm, respectively, and 3.4 years (CI, 2.6 to 4.3 years) and 6.9 years (CI, 6.4 to 7.4 years) after controlling for birth cohort effects. LIMITATION: Information on covariates that could explain cohort effects was lacking. CONCLUSION: In this population, strong cohort effects reduced age gradients in advanced colorectal neoplasms and inflated risk-advancement periods for men compared with women, but major risk advancement persisted, even after birth cohort effects were controlled for. Primary Funding Source: None.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 20513827
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  • 2
    Keywords: CANCER ; Germany ; screening ; incidence ; POPULATION ; RISK ; PATIENT ; colon ; ADENOMAS ; PROGRESSION ; DESIGN ; AGE ; WOMEN ; colorectal cancer ; MEN ; COLORECTAL-CANCER ; COST-EFFECTIVENESS ; RATES ; LINE ; EVOLUTION ; MALIGNANT TRANSFORMATION ; NATIONWIDE ; CARRIERS ; INDIVIDUALS ; SERIES ; PREVALENCE ; REGISTRY ; RE ; INCREASE ; TRANSITION ; colonoscopy ; CANCER INCIDENCE ; GUT ; REGISTRIES ; colorectal ; - ; GRADIENT ; LARGE-INTESTINE ; POLYPS ; SCREENING COLONOSCOPY ; adenoma ; YOUNGER
    Abstract: Objectives: To derive age and sex specific estimates of transition rates from advanced adenomas to colorectal cancer by combining data of a nationwide screening colonoscopy registry and national data on colorectal cancer ( CRC) incidence. Design: Registry based study. Setting: National screening colonoscopy programme in Germany. Patients: Participants of screening colonoscopy in 2003 and 2004 ( n = 840 149). Main outcome measures: Advanced adenoma prevalence, colorectal cancer incidence, annual and 10 year cumulative risk of developing CRC among carriers of advanced adenomas according to sex and age ( range 55 - 80+ years). Results: The age gradient is much stronger for CRC incidence than for advanced adenoma prevalence. As a result, projected annual transition rates from advanced adenomas to CRC strongly increase with age ( from 2.6% in age group 55 - 59 years to 5.6% in age group 〉= 80 years among women, and from 2.6% in age group 55 - 59 years to 5.1% in age group 〉= 80 years among men). Projections of 10 year cumulative risk increase from 25.4% at age 55 years to 42.9% at age 80 years in women, and from 25.2% at age 55 years to 39.7% at age 80 years in men. Conclusions: Advanced adenoma transition rates are similar in both sexes, but there is a strong age gradient for both sexes. Our estimates of transition rates in older age groups are in line with previous estimates derived from small case series in the pre-colonoscopy era independent of age. However, our projections for younger age groups are considerably lower. These findings may have important implications for the design of CRC screening programmes
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 17591622
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  • 3
    Keywords: REDUCTION ; NEOPLASIA ; prevention ; SURVEILLANCE ; POLYPS ; SCREENING COLONOSCOPY ; POPULATION-BASED ANALYSIS ; VIENNA CLASSIFICATION ; MISS RATES
    Abstract: BACKGROUND & AIMS: Screening colonoscopy is an effective method to reduce the incidence of and mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC). There is little empirical evidence available about the optimal interval for screening, making this a subject of debate. We associated the prevalence of advanced colorectal neoplasms with time since negative colonoscopies. METHODS: In a study of participants in the German colonoscopy screening program, we determined the prevalence of colorectal neoplasias detected at screening colonoscopy among subjects who had undergone a previous colonoscopy without detection of polyps (negative colonoscopy). Data were compared with that from subjects who had not received colonoscopies. RESULTS: No CRCs were detected in participants who had a previous negative colonoscopy an average of 11.9 years previously (n = 553), compared with the 8.4 CRC cases expected based on age- and gender-specific prevalences among participants who had not received a colonoscopy (n = 2701; standardized prevalence ratio [SPR] = 0.00; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.00-0.55). Prevalence of advanced adenoma was also much lower among subjects who had previous colonoscopies (SPR = 0.42; 95% CI: 0.25-0.68). Adjusted prevalence ratios (95% CIs) for detecting an advanced adenoma were 0.38 (95% CI: 0.16-0.90), 0.34 (95% CI: 0.15-0.74), 0.38 (95% CI: 0.16-0.90), and 0.53 (95% CI: 0.27-1.04) among participants with a negative colonoscopy conducted 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, and 〉16 years ago, respectively, compared to participants with no previous colonoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: The low risk of CRC and advanced adenomas after a negative colonoscopy supports suggestions that screening intervals be extended to 〉/=10 years.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 19909750
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  • 4
    Keywords: CANCER ; POPULATION ; COST-EFFECTIVENESS ; ENDOSCOPY ; LARGE-INTESTINE ; POLYPS ; sex ; OCCULT BLOOD-TEST ; STOOL DNA ; SOJOURN TIME
    Abstract: Background: Most colorectal cancers (CRC) develop from adenomas. Knowledge of the natural history of colorectal adenomas, which is not directly observable for ethical reasons, is crucial for designing cost-effective CRC screening strategies. Methods: We derived transition rates from carriage of nonadvanced adenoma to carriage of advanced adenoma to carriage of CRC by sex and age in birth cohort analyses among 3,593,420 participants in the German screening colonoscopy program in 2003-2010. Results: Transition rates from advanced adenoma to CRC carriage were similar in men and women, but monotonically and significantly increased with age. Estimated annual transition percentages [(95% confidence interval (CI)] in age groups 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, and 75-79 years were 2.6 (2.4-2.9), 3.1 (2.8-3.3), 3.8 (3.5-4.1), 5.1 (4.8-5.5), and 5.2 (4.6-5.8) among men, and 2.5 (2.2-2.7), 2.7 (2.4-3.0), 3.8 (3.5-4.1), 5.0 (4.5-5.4), and 5.6 (4.9-6.3) among women. Estimated annual transitions from carriage of nonadvanced to carriage of advanced adenoma were in a narrow range from 3.6% to 4.7% for all age and sex groups. Conclusions: Despite low annual transition rates, cumulative transition rates from advanced adenoma to CRC carriage are expected to exceed by 60%, 50%, and 40% for age intervals 55-80, 65-80, and 70-80 years, respectively, in both sexes. Cumulative transition rates from nonadvanced adenoma to CRC carriage are expected to be close to 30% for age interval 55-80 years, but less than 2% for age interval 75-80 years. Impact: Our results enhance the empirical basis for modeling CRC screening strategies.
    Type of Publication: Journal article published
    PubMed ID: 23632815
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