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  • Seismicity  (3)
  • 2000-2004
  • 1995-1999  (3)
  • 1950-1954
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  • 1
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Seismicity ; earthquake prediction ; seismotectonic ; regionalization ; Italy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The algorithm CN makes use of normalized functions. Therefore the original algorithm, developed for the California-Nevada region, can be directly applied, without adjustment of the parameters, to the determination of the Time of Increased Probability (TIP) of strong earthquakes for Central Italy. The prediction is applied to the events with magnitudeM≥M 0=5.6, which in Central Italy have a return period of about six years. The routinely available digital earthquake bulletins of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING), Rome, permits continuous monitoring. Here we extend to November 1994 the first study made by Keilis-Boroket al. (1990b). On the basis of the combined analysis of seismicity and seismotectonic, we formulate a new regionalization, which reduces the total alarm time and the failures to predict, and narrows the spatial uncertainty of the prediction with respect to the results ofKeilis-Borok et al. (1990b). The premonitory pattern is stable when the key parameters of the CN algorithm and the duration of the learning period are changed, and when different earthquake catalogues are used. The anlysis of the period 1904–1940, for whichM 0=6, allows us to identify self-similar properties between the two periods, in spite of the considerably higher seismicity level of the earlier time interval compared with the recent one.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Seismicity ; rock bursts ; stresses ; mining operations ; monitoring ; geodynamic regime ; informative precursors
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Large volumes of rock mass, mined-out and moved within these deposits, resulted in irreversible changes in the geodynamic regime in the upper earth's crust of the adjacent territory. These changes manifest themselves in a more frequent occurrence of such intensive dynamic phenomena as tectonic rock bursts due to fault movement adjacent to the area which is mined-out and man-made earthquakes which sharply decrease mining safety and result in great material losses. To develop the prediction techniques of such phenomena, a monitoring system is created, based on the program of the Kola Complex of geodynamic measuring stations. Most of this system is realized in the region of the Khibiny apatite mines. The system provides regional seismological monitoring, local prediction of seismicity in separate areas of a rock mass and, determination of stress and strain in rock masses, local geophysical monitoring over the state of rocks in a rock mass as well as physical and mathematical modelling of geodynamic processes in the upper earth's crust. The investigations have resulted in the distinguishing of some regularities in manifestations of induced seismicity and tectonic rock bursts and in the determination of strain precursors of intensive seismic events in the Khibiny mines. The mechanism is provided by the induced seismicity which resulted from the anthropogenic impact on the geological medium. A geodynamic monitoring complex is described, which is used to reveal the precursors of powerful seismic eventsin situ, and monitoring results are shown, obtained in the Kola Complex of geodynamic stations. Methods of preventing tectonic rock bursts and induced earthquakes are presented.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Seismicity ; fractal dimension ; North Anatolian fault zone
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract We investigate the nature of temporal variations in the statistical properties of seismicity associated with the North Anatolian Fault Zone between longitudes 31°–41°E during the instrumental period 1900–1992. Temporal variations in the seismicb value and the fractal (correlation) dimensionD c of earthquake epicenters are examined for earthquakes of magnitudeM S ≥4.5, using sliding windows of 100 consecutive events.b varies temporally between 0.6 and 1.0, andD c between 0.6 and 1.4, both representing significant fluctuations above the errors in measurement technique. A strong negative correlation (r=−0.85) is observed betweenb andD c , consistent with previous observation of seismicity in Japan and southern California. Major events early in this century (M S ≥7) are associated with lowb and highD c , respectively consistent with greater stress intensity and greater spatial clustering of epicenters—both implying a greater degree of stress concentration at this time.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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